Mete Yuksel

Major: Mathematics

Faculty Advisor: Chris Remien, Steve Krone, James Bull

Project Title:

Population structure defines the outcomes of genetic interventions against disease

Abstract

Proponents of synthetic gene drives argue that genetic engineering and similar technologies could be used to eliminate vector-borne diseases like malaria that continue to claim millions of lives each year. However, genetic interventions against disease will likely prove imperfect––leaving pockets in which parasite persistence and evolution are possible. To understand the effect of such imperfections on genetic interventions against disease and the role of space in interventions more generally, we consider two models of vectored disease in multiple populations linked by travel. These models are characterized by distinct functional forms of transmission. We find that movement of humans between localities, as well as differences in mosquito ecology, shape the nature of infection globally. Further, we hypothesize that discrete spatial structure has profound evolutionary implications, allowing for a parasite to accumulate successive mutations at the boundaries of ‘patches’ where transmission is suppressed and, in doing so, expand its initial range. Altogether, our results illustrate the nuanced reality of interventions, both genetic and not, against vector-borne disease: population structure, mosquito biology, and evolution together determine where eradication is possible, and where it isn’t.

Funding: Office of Undergraduate Research