A Study on the Impact of Parameter Uncertainty on the Emission-Based Ranking of Transportation Projects
Project Title
A Study on the Impact of Parameter Uncertainty on the Emission-Based Ranking of Transportation Projects
University
Old Dominion
Principal Investigator
ManWo Ng, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor, Old Dominion University
PI Contact Information
Funding Sources and Amounts Provided
US Department of Transportation/TranLIVE — $40,000
Old Dominion University — $40,000
Total Project Cost
$80,000
Agency ID or Contract Number
DTRT12GUTC17; KLK900-SB-001
Start Date
3/1/12
End Date
1/31/14
Description of Research Project
With the growing concern on air quality levels and, hence, the livability of urban regions in the nation, it has become increasingly common to incorporate vehicular emission considerations in the ranking of transportation projects. Network assignment methods have proven invaluable in the characterization of system level emissions. However, the estimation of these regional air quality impacts has been typically based on the assumption of determinism. That is, model parameters in network assignment methods are typically assumed to be known with complete certainty. In this project, we relax the assumption of determinism and examine three sources of uncertainty: trip table/ demand uncertainty, road capacity uncertainty and emission uncertainty.
Fundamentally new methodologies will be developed to further the state-of-the-art in uncertainty modeling in the context of emission-based ranking of transportation projects. This research is both unique and timely: Never before has the (joint) uncertainty been explicitly modeled in an emissions context. More importantly, never before has this been modeled in conjunction with EPA’s MOVES software. This effort is particularly timely, given that MOVES will be required for transportation conformity in the very near future (i.e. March 2, 2013).
The main hypothesis in this research is that by considering uncertainty (i.e. by increasing modeling realism), the ranking of transportation projects can be quite different from those resulting from the current practice of determinism.
Implementation of Research Outcomes
This research has not been implemented yet as of January 2014. The outcomes of this research need to be more widely disseminated first as some of these outcomes depart significantly from the current state-of-the-practice.
Impacts and Benefits of the Project
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Web Links
Final Report: ODU_TranLIVE_Final Report_Study Impact
Keywords
- environment
- livability
- sustainability
- transportation networks
- traffic assignment
- emissions
- MOVES