Softwood Resource Conditions
and
Management Implications^*

Jay O'Laughlin and Philip S. Cook^†

August 7, 2002

Contribution No. 959
Idaho Forest, Wildlife and Range Experiment Station
College of Natural Resources
University of Idaho
Moscow, ID 83844-1131

_________________

* Analysis is partly based on preliminary forest inventory data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture - Forest Service in April 2002, which are subject to change. Analysis was requested by the editor of Evergreen Magazine for a forthcoming issue titled "The Truth About America's Forests" (700,000 copies of the 1994 version were distributed).

^† Dr. O'Laughlin is Director, Policy Analysis Group (PAG), and Professor, Department of Forest Resources, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844-1134; Philip S. Cook is PAG Research Associate.

Phone: (208) 885-5776
Email: jayo@uidaho.edu
Internet: http://www.uidaho.edu/cfwr/pag

Acknowledgments: Scenery above is along the Lolo Trail in the Bitterroot Mountains of Idaho and Montana, from the Clearwater National Forest website. Review comments by Dr. Con Schallau on an earlier draft are appreciated.

National forests are assets of immense value, including almost half of the nation's softwood timber resources. Widespread and severe wildfires put a range of ecological, environmental, economic and social values at risk, and raise questions about the health and sustainability of national forests. The softwood resource is analyzed because western forests are mostly (90%) softwoods, and most of the national forests (82%) are in 12 western states.

• Objective. The main purpose of this report is to provide an objective statistical information base about western national forest conditions. Recent USDA Forest Service publications provide data from 1952 to 2002. These data have implications for management policy decisions, which are identified and discussed primarily by citing various publications.

• Background. More than a century ago political leaders had the foresight and courage to carve out of the public domain a system of national forest reserves "to improve and protect the forest within the boundaries, or for the purpose of securing favorable conditions of water flows and to furnish a continuous supply of timber for the use and necessities of the citizens of the United States." ⁽¹⁾ During the administration of President Theodore Roosevelt the system was expanded, renamed the national forests, and placed under the stewardship of the newly created Forest Service in the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

National forests are to provide sustained flows of various values, products, and services "in the combination that will best meet the needs of the American people." ⁽²⁾ Many people enjoy the clean water, wildlife, and recreation opportunities the national forests provide, and many benefit from the timber, minerals, and livestock forage. The National Forest System consists of 191.6 million acres, or 8.5% of America's lands. Forests cover 77% of the system lands, located in 44 states. Seven states each have more than 10 million acres of national forests. Another 17 have more than one million acres each, and 16 other states have at least 100,000 acres.

• Methods. President Roosevelt believed the national forests were a good investment for the nation, and that their usefulness could be increased by "thoroughly businesslike management." ⁽³⁾ An inventory of assets is an essential part of any business plan. Fifty years ago the Forest Service began assembling periodic forest inventory data for all forest ownerships, from which regional and ownership trends for softwood and hardwood resources can be developed. National Inventory Data ⁽⁴⁾ are used to identify trends in softwood resource conditions on western national forest timberlands over the past 50 years. As there are no standards against which to compare data, comparisons with other ownerships and regions provides context for the analysis. Measuring Forest Health provides objective statistics derived from inventory data. ⁽⁵⁾ Forest health conditions are compared across ownerships and regions using three statistics derived from inventory data:

• forest density, measured as total growing stock volume (all softwood and hardwood trees > 5" diameter) per acre of timberland;
• softwood mortality rate, a forest health indicator when mortality is expressed as a percentage of growth; and
• softwood growth/removal ratio, an estimate of the physical sustainability of timber harvests.

Western National Forest Conditions are examined in depth by comparisons across ownerships in the Pacific Coast and Interior West regions. Statistics are then related to Forest Health Problems and Management Implications as currently discussed in various publications. The main points from the analysis are listed as Conclusions. Appropriate references are cited with Endnotes.

The Forest Service collects data on the nation's forests and timberlands and reports it by ownership and region. Timberland is a subcategory of forest land where it is physically and administratively possible to grow continuous crops of industrial timber. Timberland inventory data include numbers of acres and volume of softwood and hardwood growing stock. Inventory change factors in the data base are tree growth, mortality (from fire, insects, diseases and other non-human causes), and removals, mostly from timber harvesting

Half of all National Forest System lands are classified as timberlands. Resource managers cannot harvest timber on the other half. National forest timberlands do not include any of the 52 million acres of federal forests reserved from timber harvesting, most of them in the National Wilderness Preservation System established in 1964. Also excluded are 105 million acres of low productivity boreal forests in Alaska and 42 million acres of western pinyon/juniper woodlands.

• Softwood Trends by Ownership. National forests have 20% of the nation's forest lands, and 19% of the timberlands (Figure 1). Statistics from here on are only for timberlands. Softwood timber comprises 56% of the nation's inventory across all categories of ownership; the remainder is hardwood (Figure 2). Timber resources - by definition, a resource is something humans use - provide raw materials for an industry employing 1.8 million Americans. ⁽⁶⁾ Softwoods comprise 61% of removals, or timber harvests (Figure 2). National forest timberlands hold 46% of the nation's softwood timber resources and provide 6% of the harvest (Figure 3).

For the past 50 years national forests have maintained approximately the same proportion of the nation's softwood inventory (Figure 4). Since 1986 the annual softwood timber harvest from national forests has diminished by 70% (Figure 5). The Forest Service attributes the reduction to conservation of habitat for species imperiled with extinction and protected by the Endangered Species Act of 1973. ⁽⁷⁾ The ESA gives regulatory agencies decision authority over most Forest Service land management activities in the West, and provides a way for people to seek judicial review of Forest Service projects.

• Softwood Trends by Region. The West has the top 7 states in softwood inventory, led by Oregon, Washington, and California (Figure 6). Fourth and fifth are Idaho and Montana, which in combination have as much softwood as Oregon. Sixth and seventh are Alaska and Colorado. The next three leading softwood states are in the South (Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina). Added together, the top three southern states have a quantity of softwood equivalent to either Idaho or Montana. Maine tops the North and ranks eleventh nationally. The top 12 national forest states are in the West, with the northwestern states of Alaska, California, Idaho, Montana, and Oregon leading in acreage (Figure 6). In the West, 34% of all forest lands, and 54% of all timberlands, are national forests.

The two western regions hold two-thirds (68%) of the nation's softwood inventory from which comes less than one-third (28%) of the softwood timber harvest (Figure 7). The South can claim to be the dominant softwood resource region because with 22% of the nation's softwood inventory in it's mixed softwood/hardwood forests, the South provides 65% of the softwood timber harvest. The inventory/removals disparity in the West is related to the large proportion of national forest ownership.

Softwood inventories are increasing in all regions except the Pacific Coast (Figure 8). The Pacific Coast states have 43% of the nation's softwood inventory, down from 59% in 1953. Except for Alaska, states in this region - California, Oregon, Washington - have the most productive timberlands in the northern hemisphere. Idaho and Montana have the most extensive and productive forests in the Interior West, with 51% of the timberland area and 61% of the softwood inventory.

Forest health is an imprecise term conveying various concerns people have about a forest's ability to provide two general types of values: first, values a forest provides through its conditions and functions, and second, values that are direct and tangible contributions of a forest to the quality of human life. ⁽⁹⁾ Forest health is a perceived condition derived from concerns about forest age, structure, composition, function, vigor, presence of unusual levels of insects and disease, and resilience to disturbance. Perceptions and interpretations of forest health are influenced by individual and cultural viewpoints, land management objectives, spatial and temporal scales, stand conditions, and the appearance of a forest at a point in time. ⁽¹⁰⁾

Forest health indicators can be developed from forest inventory data. Three are used here: 1) forest density, 2) the relationship of forest growth and mortality, ⁽¹¹⁾ and 3) the relationship of forest growth and removals, a coarse-filter measure that approximates the idea of sustainable production. ⁽¹²⁾ Growing stock volume and three factors that change inventory volume - annual growth increment, mortality, and removals - are collected as part of the periodic forest inventory conducted by the Forest Service. Averaged across all ownerships and regions, softwood growing stock volume increased 14% in the past 50 years. Annual growth of softwood (net of mortality) in 2002 was 77% higher than in 1953, annual softwood mortality was 35% higher than 50 years ago, and annual softwood removals increased 30% between 1952 and 2001. ⁽¹³⁾ Relationships and trends in these data can be used to objectively describe the condition of forest growing stock by ownership and region.

• Forest Density Trends. The density of forests affects productivity. ⁽¹⁴⁾ Trees compete for moisture, nutrients, growing space, and light. Too much growing stock means tree vigor will be less than optimal as limited resources for each tree are reduced, affecting growth and mortality processes. Growing stock volume per acre is a measure of density that can be derived directly from forest inventory data provided in widely distributed Forest Service reports. Hardwoods and softwoods on the same site compete for the same resources, making it necessary to use total growing stock volume, not just softwoods. Forest density averaged across all ownerships and regions has increased 40% during the past 50 years. By ownership, national forests are at least 50% denser than any other ownership (Figure 9). By region, Pacific Coast forests are 79% denser than Interior West forests, which are at least 36% denser than forests in the North or South (Figure 10).

• Softwood Mortality/Growth Trends. Along with removals, mortality and growth are the major forest change factors. Statistical analysis of inventory data shows mortality rates correlated with forest density (significant at the 0.01 level); i.e., denser forests have higher mortality rates. By ownership, national forests have had higher mortality rates than other ownerships in every periodic inventory since 1953, and the rate is now 61% higher than any other ownership (Figure 11). Although mortality rates increased on all ownerships since 1987, the rate of increase on national forests is the highest. By region, in the past 15 years softwood mortality rates have increased in the Interior West and North, whereas rates decreased in Pacific Coast forests (Figure 12). Because the North has a relatively small amount of national forests, that story, featuring air pollution and exotic insects, ⁽¹⁵⁾ is best told elsewhere. Forests in the South have not exhibited increased mortality rates at this scale of analysis.

• Softwood Growth/Removal Trends. The idea of sustained-yield forestry is that timber harvests in a given year generally should not exceed annual forest growth. This traditional sustainability measure is expressed as a ratio of net annual growth (i.e., net of annual mortality) to annual removals. Removals consist almost entirely of timber harvests plus associated logging residue or slash. By ownership, national forests broke from the pack in 1987, reaching a ratio of 5.4 in 1997 and 2002, more than double the next highest ratio of 2.2 (Figure 13). By region, trends show the South right at the brink of sustainability, at 1.0 in 2002 (Figure 14). Trends also reveal the change from an unsustainable to sustainable condition in the Pacific Coast region in 1987, as slower-growing older trees on public and forest industry lands were harvested during preceding periods.

The growth/removal ratio in 1987 ranged between 0.8 and 2.3 across all ownerships and regions (Figures 13 and 14). The reduction of national forest timber harvests during the 1990s increased the Pacific Coast regional ratio from 1.1 to 1.8, while the ratio in the Interior West region increased from 2.3 to 3.7 (Figure 14). The level of timber harvests on western national forests in 1987 was such that growth exceeded removals, with Pacific Coast national forests at 1.2 and Interior West at 2.8 (Figure 15). National forest ratios are now extraordinarily high in the Pacific Coast (6.7) and Interior West (9.0) (Figure 15). Additional analysis of these conditions is warranted.

• Pacific Coast Region. National forests are at least 40% denser than any other ownership in the Pacific Coast (Figure 16). National forests hold the majority of softwood inventory (58% in 2002) and began adding to that inventory in 1987 after reductions in previous periods (Figure 17). Removal trends indicate that the Forest Service, other public agencies, and forest industry firms drew down their softwood inventories until 1986 (Figure 18). Removals increased from 1952 to 1986, then diminished on national forests by 78% between 1986 and 1996, with further reductions to 2001 (Figure 18). Mortality rates decreased on all ownerships over the past 50 years (Figure 19). This is likely the result of harvesting older, larger, slower-growing trees. The mortality rate on national forests remains above the average for all ownerships because the older trees in national forests grow more slowly and tree mortality is often high in older stands. In summary, national forests are 47% denser and have a mortality rate 50% higher than other ownerships (Figure 20).

• Interior West Region. National forests are at least 33% denser than any other ownership in the Interior West (Figure 21). This region has about half of the amount of softwood inventory as the Pacific Coast region, but a larger proportion of it (75% in 2002) is in the national forests (Figure 22, which for comparison is drawn to the same scale as Figure 17). Inventory has been increasing for the past 50 years in the national forests, and at an increasing rate since 1987 (Figure 22). The reduction in national forest timber harvests between 1986 and 1996 (72%) is similar to the Pacific Coast region, and has also continued to diminish (Figure 23). Accompanying the reduction in harvests and buildup of inventory is an increase in mortality. Although mortality rates increased on all ownerships since 1986, the national forests increased at a substantially higher rate (Figure 24). In 2002 mortality in the region was the highest rate in the nation (Figure 12) because of the national forests, which had the highest mortality rate (42%) of any region and ownership reported since 1962 (52%, Pacific Coast national forests, Figure 19). In summary, national forests in the Interior West are 63% denser and have a mortality rate 80% higher than other ownerships (Figure 25).

Are western national forests "healthy"? Maybe not. Forest density, mortality/growth rates, and growth/removal ratios are higher than in other regions and also higher than other ownerships within the region. This could be a problem if national forest lands are expected to provide a variety of values, products, and services for people.

At least 50.4 million acres of national forests are at high risk of severe forest fire, with 80% of that acreage in the West. ⁽¹⁶⁾ In parts of the West national forests have become more susceptible to outbreaks of insects and diseases as well as severe fire. ⁽¹⁷⁾ To a large degree, these forest health problems contributed to the severity of some of the wildfires in 2000, which were some of the worst in the last 50 years. ⁽¹⁸⁾ Such fires not only pose danger to people, but severe, long-lasting damage is likely to result to wildlife and watersheds when a fire burns, particularly in drought years. ⁽¹⁹⁾ Forest health directly affects watershed conditions, including water quality, by regulating the amount, timing, and sedimentation of runoff. ⁽²⁰⁾ Severe fires put ecological values at risk, including water quality and species recovery, as well as homes in rural areas. ⁽²¹⁾

The most extensive and serious problem with the health of national forests in the Interior West is the over-accumulation of vegetation, which has caused an increasing number of large, intense, uncontrollable, and catastrophically destructive wildfires. ⁽²²⁾ According to the Forest Service, forests have accumulated an "unnatural build-up" of fuels, setting "conditions for unnaturally intense fires that threaten communities, air, soil, water quality, and plant and animal species." ⁽²³⁾ Forest Service scientists have been warning of the fuel buildup for at least 30 years. ⁽²⁴⁾

The Forest Service expects removals from national forests to remain near today's levels during the next 50 years, with increases in annual growth increments and mortality. ⁽²⁵⁾ This means denser forests than today, with more dead wood in them. Many western forests are already too dense, with more trees than the site can support. ⁽²⁶⁾ For example, reducing overly dense ponderosa pine stands is a pervasive forest restoration problem. ⁽²⁷⁾

Inaction or passive management will allow some forest health problems to worsen. ⁽²⁸⁾ Scientists anticipate increased fuel accumulations, lengthened fire seasons, and intensified burning conditions, all contributing to larger and more catastrophic wildfires. ⁽²⁹⁾ The potential for severe fire can be reduced by active land management, with the objective of maintaining forest cover and structure within a range consistent with long-term disturbance processes. ⁽³⁰⁾ Many scientists believe cutting and removing trees - i.e., thinning and timber harvesting - are necessary parts of forest restoration strategies. ⁽³¹⁾ Forest Service scientists concluded that "active management appears to have the greatest chance of producing the mix of goods and services that people want from ecosystems, as well as maintaining or enhancing long-term ecological integrity." ⁽³²⁾ The consequences of inaction far exceed those of action. ⁽³³⁾

Western forest landscapes and human communities have been ravaged by preventable catastrophic fires. ⁽³⁴⁾ In response to the wildfires of 2000, the National Fire Plan identified reducing hazardous fuel accumulations and restoring the health of forest ecosystems as ways for reducing wildfire risk to communities and the environment, as well as the appropriate emphases for forest policy. ⁽³⁵⁾ The 10-Year Comprehensive Strategy for implementing the plan is a collaborative approach by federal, state, and tribal governments and was developed in consultation with many affected interest groups. Two of the Strategy's four goals are reducing hazardous fuels and restoring fire-adapted ecosystems. ⁽³⁶⁾

The conventional wisdom in the National Fire Plan seems to be that fuel treatments are expensive. They need not be. Research at western land grant universities has demonstrated that meeting ecological restoration objectives in fire-adapted forests throughout the West can often produce enough revenue from timber by-products to pay for the project activities, and sometimes substantially more. ⁽³⁷⁾

National forest managers know how to reduce hazardous fuels and restore ecosystems. However, the Forest Service operates within a decision-making framework it says "has kept the agency from effectively addressing rapid declines in forest health. This same framework impedes nearly every other aspect of multiple-use management as well." ⁽³⁸⁾ Chief Dale Bosworth calls the situation "analysis paralysis." ⁽³⁹⁾ Others call it gridlock. Whatever name one chooses, it must be something other than "thoroughly businesslike management."

Although the need for national forest reform is widely recognized, there is no agreement on what shape it should take. ⁽⁴⁰⁾ Policy-makers could initiate reform by giving Forest Service managers the authority to expeditiously undertake projects that would reduce to sustainable levels the accumulation of vegetation on national forest timberlands. National forests are public lands, and some form of public consent is necessary. To obtain consent directly from the people, the Forest Service will likely need additional resources to undertake effective collaborative learning among affected interests. ⁽⁴¹⁾ An alternative is to categorically exclude fuel reduction and ecological restoration projects from environmental analysis under the premise that creating sustainable conditions per se has benefits that outweigh costs. On a project by project basis the goals of consent are not only to define sustainable forest conditions but to provide measurable management objectives. If fuel treatment and forest restoration work is done effectively, the level of public trust and confidence in the agency could also be restored.

• National forests, with 19% of the nation's timberlands, have a disproportionately large portion (46%) of the softwood resource from which comes a disproportionately small (6%) amount of the nation's softwood timber harvest.
• More than 40 million acres of western national forests are subject to severe catastrophic fires.
• Fuel accumulation is widely recognized as a serious forest health problem. The current forest density, growth, mortality, and removals situation on western national forests portends continued accumulations of fuel, as inventory has been building since 1987.
• Western national forests are denser than forest in other ownerships: 47% denser in the Pacific Coast region and 63% in the Interior West.
• Western national forests have higher mortality rates than forests in other ownerships: 50% higher in the Pacific Coast region and 80% higher in the Interior West.
• Western national forests have extraordinarily high growth/removal ratios: 6.7 in the Pacific Coast region and 9.0 in the Interior West.
• National forest timber inventories could physically sustain three times the current level of softwood removals, or the timber harvest levels of the 1980s.
• Active management strategies that include cutting trees and removing them from the site can help restore more sustainable conditions on national forest timberlands.
• Treatment costs can be reduced by combining ecological restoration objectives with hazardous fuel reduction objectives.
• The alternative to active management is reduced productivity, many dead trees, and fuel conditions favorable to severe and potentially destructive wildfires. ⁽⁴²⁾
• Two obstacles to active management are public policy and public trust. The Forest Service cannot effectively treat forest health problems because of the "Process Predicament," or decision gridlock.

Endnotes

1. National Forest Organic Administration Act of 1897 (16 U.S.C. 475).

2. Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960 (16 U.S.C. 531).

3. Pinchot, Gifford (1947), Breaking New Ground, Harcourt, Brace, New York, p. 190.

4. USDA Forest Service reports used as data sources:

• Forest Resources of the United States, 2002, draft tables, Washington, DC (April 2002) [online]: <http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/4801/FIADB/rpa_tabler/Draft_RPA_2002_Forest_Resouce_Tables.pdf>[sic];
• Forest Resources of the United States, 1997, General Technical Report GTR-NC-219, North Central Research Station, St. Paul, MN (W.B. Smith, J.S. Vissage, D.R. Darr, and R.M. Sheffield, August 2001) [online]: <http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/searchtools/viewpub.asp?key=845>;
• Forest Statistics of the United States, 1987, Resource Bulletin PNW-RB-168, Portland, OR (K.L. Waddell, D.D. Oswald, and D.S. Powell, 1989); and
• An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States, 1952-2030, Forest Resource Report No. 23, Washington, DC (1982).